1. Key indicators: what is happening to revenue, customer traffic, and the average check
The results for 2025 provide context for assessing 2026. For the full year 2025, Poster reported a 6% increase in revenue, an 8% decline in customer traffic, and a 17% rise in the average check. In the first seven months of 2026, the picture became more challenging: revenue was still growing, but the decline in customer traffic was steeper.
| Indicator | 2025 vs. 2024 | January–July 2026 vs. January–July 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Restaurant revenue | +6% | +3% |
| Number of visits | −8% | −14% |
| Average check | +17% | +17% |
+6%
−8%
+17%
+3%
−14%
+17%
What do these figures mean?A restaurant earns more per order but sees a decline in visit frequency. A higher average check should not automatically be interpreted as higher profits: it reflects both price changes and shifts in the mix of orders. If food, labor, and energy costs rise, even positive revenue growth may coincide with a deterioration in profit margins.
Importantly, these figures represent nominal changes, not growth in real profits. According to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, annual consumer price inflation reached 10.0% in September 2026, while prices in the “restaurants and hotels” category were up 10.1% compared with December 2025. These figures use different comparison periods, so they cannot simply be subtracted from January–July revenue growth without additional calculations. Nevertheless, they illustrate the price pressures facing the industry.
2. Regional trends: Kyiv and Lviv lose visitors while Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia see growth
The most recent Poster data available when this article was prepared covers September 1 – October 18, 2026. Analysts compared the results with the same period in 2025 using aggregated data from 5,000 food-service establishments across seven cities.
| City | Change in revenue | Change in customer traffic | Change in average check |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyiv | −5% | −20% | +15% |
| Lviv | −2% | −17% | +16% |
| Dnipro | +1% | −14% | +18% |
| Odesa | +4% | −7% | +11% |
| Ivano-Frankivsk | +12% | −7% | +20% |
| Kharkiv | +20% | +4% | +13% |
| Zaporizhzhia | +17% | +24% | +27% |
−5%
−20%
−2%
−17%
+1%
−14%
+4%
−7%
+12%
−7%
+20%
+4%
+17%
+24%
Kyiv recorded the largest decline in visits among the cities studied, down 20%. A 15% rise in the average check did not offset the loss of traffic, and revenue fell by 5%. Lviv showed a similar pattern: customer traffic fell by 17% and revenue by 2%. Meanwhile, Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia posted positive results on all three indicators.
These differences do not mean that operating in frontline cities is safer or easier. Results may be affected by the local structure of demand, the composition of the sample, population shifts, visits by temporary groups of consumers, and a low comparison base. Separate local studies are needed to establish the causes. The key takeaway for business owners is that national averages cannot replace an analysis of a specific location.
A separate Poster study conducted after Kyiv shortened its curfew found only modest changes: revenue +1.28%, customer traffic +0.88%, and the average check +0.66%. These findings do not support attributing any major improvement in performance solely to the change in restrictions.
3. Business openings and closures: the market continues to evolve
According to Opendatabot, approximately 10,700 sole proprietors registered in the food and beverage service sector in January–September 2026, while around 7,900 ceased operating. The net difference was approximately +2,800 sole proprietors. Food services ranked among the five most popular sectors for new sole-proprietor registrations during this period.
≈ 10,700
≈ 7,900
However, the number of sole proprietors is not the same as the number of restaurants. One establishment may operate through several legal entities, an entrepreneur may change their business activity, and some registrations relate to other types of food and beverage services. These data therefore primarily reflect entrepreneurial activity within the relevant Ukrainian economic activity classification (KVED), rather than the exact number of physical establishments opened or closed.
The risks of entering the industry remain high. According to a separate Opendatabot study, among sole proprietors in the restaurant sector who closed during the period studied in 2025, the median business lifespan was 17 months. This figure describes sole proprietors who closed within a specific sample; it is not a forecast of how long a new restaurant will remain in business.
4. The main challenges facing restaurants during the war
Staff shortages
Chefs, baristas, waitstaff, administrators, and managers are essential to the hospitality industry. Mobilization, migration, internal displacement, and job changes make it difficult to build and retain teams. In a survey of 200 restaurant operators conducted in late 2025 and early 2026, 79% identified hiring and retaining employees as one of their main challenges.
Power outages and operating costs
For restaurants, electricity disruptions mean more than the cost of generators and fuel. They affect food storage, kitchen operations, service speed, logistics, and compliance with safety standards. In the same survey, 60% of respondents reported difficulties operating during power outages, while 30% identified a loss of personal motivation as a significant challenge.
+79%
+60%
+30%
Note: respondents could select more than one answer, so the percentages are not expected to total 100%.
Declining profitability
According to the same non-representative industry survey, 42% of restaurant operators said their profitability had declined in 2025, 32% said it was unchanged, and 26% reported an improvement. 9% of respondents reported negative profitability, while another 8% said they were operating at approximately break-even. These findings cannot be generalized to every restaurant in Ukraine without accounting for the sample characteristics, but they help explain why a rising average check does not guarantee financial resilience.
5. Which restaurant formats proved more resilient?
According to Poster, the highest revenue growth in 2025 was recorded by sushi establishments (+12%) and pizzerias (+10%). Coffee shops grew by 6%, while fast-food outlets and coffee-to-go businesses rose by 5%. These figures do not constitute a profitability ranking: revenue does not account for differences in rent, staffing levels, food costs, or delivery expenses.
| Establishment format | Average check in 2025 | Key considerations |
|---|---|---|
| Restaurant | UAH 693 | Need for quality service, a capable team, and a strong guest experience |
| Sushi | UAH 687 | Importance of repeat orders and delivery |
| Pizzeria | UAH 321 | Combining dine-in, takeaway, and delivery |
| Cafe | UAH 315 | Sensitivity to location and daily customer traffic |
| Coffee shop | UAH 111 | Visit frequency and speed of service |
| Coffee to go | UAH 89 | Pedestrian footfall and conversion into purchases |
UAH 693
UAH 687
Figures refer to 2025, not 2026. Source: Poster.
UAH 315
UAH 111
UAH 89
The table presents 2025 figures, which are the latest format-level benchmarks available in the study used, not average checks for 2026.
6. How consumer behavior has changed
In 2026, restaurants compete not only with other establishments but also with alternative ways consumers can spend their limited budgets. Guests may dine in less often, choose simpler formats, use takeaway services, or favor places near home or work. However, without a dedicated survey, it is not possible to determine which of these behaviors has become dominant in Ukraine.
For management decisions, at least four areas are worth studying: visit frequency, an acceptable average check, reasons for deciding not to visit and the role of delivery and takeaway. Audiences should be segmented by city, age, income, family status, and dining occasion—for example, a quick lunch, meeting friends, a work break, or a family celebration.
7. What restaurant operators should do in 2026–2027
| Area | Recommended action | Metric to track |
|---|---|---|
| Demand and location | Assess customer traffic and the audience in a specific neighborhood | Number of transactions, visits, repeat visits |
| Menu and pricing | Analyze item-level margins and test prices | Food cost, gross margin, average check |
| Staff | Optimize schedules and onboarding for new hires | Staff turnover, labor costs |
| Energy resilience | Prepare operating scenarios for power outages | Energy costs, downtime |
| Sales channels | Evaluate the economics of delivery and takeaway | Profit per order, commissions, repeat purchases |
| Guest relations | Collect feedback and test hypotheses | NPS/CSAT, causes of dissatisfaction, return visit frequency |
From a management perspective, the most important question is no longer “How much has the average check increased?” but how much profit remains after serving each guest. Answering it requires comparing POS analytics with costs, regular customer research, and metrics for the specific location.
8. Why restaurant businesses need market research
Public industry statistics reveal broad trends but cannot answer questions specific to an individual restaurant: why guests stopped coming, how they might respond to a new menu, what price they are willing to pay, and which service formats they expect. This requires primary data—guest surveys, concept testing, interviews, and satisfaction analysis.
Practical options for businesses include online surveys of target audiences, in-person interviews, central location testing (CLT) of dishes or concepts, and repeat measurements of consumer sentiment. IMData specializes in data collection and processing, sociological studies, and market research that can help test these hypotheses before investing in a new opening, rebranding, or expansion.
Conclusions
As of autumn 2026, the Ukrainian restaurant market is showing adaptation rather than unequivocal growth. Establishments continue operating, entrepreneurs start new businesses, and the average check is rising. At the same time, declining customer traffic, labor shortages, war-related and energy risks put additional pressure on profitability. Regional differences are so substantial that a one-size-fits-all strategy is unlikely to work equally well in Kyiv, Lviv, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia.
Bottom line: establishments that base decisions not only on revenue but also on real data about their guests, costs, repeat visits, and local demand will have the greatest advantage.